Bayesian Linear Regression

The paper is concerned with Bayesian analysis under prior-data conflict, i.e. the situation when observed data are rather unexpected under the prior (and the sample size is not large enough to eliminate the influence of the prior). Two approaches for Bayesian linear regression modeling based on conjugate priors are considered in detail, namely the standard approach also described in Fahrmeir, Kneib & Lang (2007) and an alternative adoption of the general construction procedure for exponential family sampling models. We recognize that - in contrast to some standard i.i.d. models like the scaled normal model and the Beta-Binomial / Dirichlet-Multinomial model, where prior-data conflict is completely ignored - the models may show some reaction to prior-data conflict, however in a rather unspecific way. Finally we briefly sketch the extension to a corresponding imprecise probability model, where, by considering sets of prior distributions instead of a single prior, prior-data conflict can be handled in a very appealing and intuitive way

Quantum statistics with internal symmetry

We formulate a group-theoretical projection technique for the quantum-statistical description of systems with exactly conserved charges corresponding to local non-Abelian gauge symmetries. The formalism is specified for SU(N) internal symmetry and a partition function related to a mixed canonical–grand-canonical ensemble is defined. Its perturbation expansion is derived, and we point out potential applications. We also study single-particle Green’s functions for the calculation of mixed ensemble averages with the help of a generalized Wick’s theorem and find that a connected-graphs expansion is impossible

Modelling Fertility: A Semi-Parametric Approach

This article presents a categorical model of fertility based on the statistical theory of the Generalised Linear Model (GLM). Focussing on the individual probability of giving birth to a child, we derive distributions which can be embedded in a GLM framework. A major advance of that methodology is the knowledge of the distribution of the random variable, which leads to a Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure. The approach takes into account the smooth shapes of parameter development over the age of the mother as well as over time. The estimation of this semi-parametric approach is done using the Local-Likelihood-method. The presented method provides stable results of the fertility, especially for smaller populations. This is illustrated by using a data set which consists of less than 100,000 inhabitants. Dieser Aufsatz stellt ein kategorielles Modell der Geburtenhäufigkeit auf Basis der statistischen Theorie des Verallgemeinerten Linearen Modells (VLM) vor. Ausgehend von individuellen Gebär-Wahrscheinlichkeiten leiten wir Verteilungen ab, welche in einen VLM-Rahmen eingebettet werden können. Ein besonderer Vorteil dieser Methode ist das Wissen um die Verteilung der Zufallsvariablen, welches ein Maximum-Likelihood Schätzverfahren ermöglicht. Der Ansatz berücksichtigt den gleichmäßigen Verlauf der Parameter-Entwicklung über das Alter der Mutter und über die Zeit. Die Schätzung dieses semi-parametrischen Ansatzes erfolgt mit Hilfe der Local-Likelihood-Methode. Die vorgestellte Methode liefert solide Ergebnisse zur Geburtenhäufigkeit, insbesondere bei kleineren Bevölkerungszahlen. Dies wird anhand eines Datensatzes mit weniger als 100.000 Einwohnern gezeigt.Geburtenentwicklung ; Semiparametrische Schätzung ; Verallgemeinertes lineares Modell; ;

Mitochondrial protein import

The precursors of the mitochondrial proteins ADP/ATP carrier (AAC) and F1-ATPase subunit β (F1β) were accumulated at the stages of binding to receptor sites on the mitochondrial outer membrane, or in contact sites between outer and inner membranes. Specific antibodies raised against the mature proteins were added to the isolated mitochondria and efficiently bound to these translocation intermediates. Further movement of the precursors to consecutive steps along their import pathway was thereby inhibited. Controls showed that precursor proteins which were inserted into or translocated across the outer membrane were not recognized by the antibodies unless the mitochondrial membranes were disrupted. We conclude that the trapped translocation intermediates have antigenic sites exposed to the outside of the outer membrane

Temporary extra jobs for immigrants: Merging lane to employment or dead-end road in welfare?

We evaluate the effects of the most frequently used German welfare-to-work program on the employment chances of immigrant welfare recipients. In particular, we investigate whether program effects differ between immigrants and natives and what might cause these potential differences. Our results reveal that the program fails to achieve its objectives. The effects are more adverse for natives, but the program does not help otherwise identical immigrants to leave the welfare system either. Therefore, the program is a dead-end road rather than a merging lane to regular employment both for natives and for immigrants. --Immigrants,employment programs,evaluation,decomposition of effects,Germany

Vibrational Branching Ratios From The Dissociation Of The NeIBr Van Der Waals Molecule

The degree of vibrational excitation in the IBr fragment from the vibrational predissociation of NeIBr (A (3)PI(1)) has been measured using two-color pump-probe laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy. We find that for the lowest initial vibrational states examined, DELTA-upsilon = -1 dissociation pathways dominate the dynamics, while this channel is closed for upsilon greater-than-or-equal-to 17. From this result, the A state binding energy (D0) of the complex is determined to be 67 +/- 4 cm-1, while that in the X electronic state is found to be 73 +/- 4 cm-1. The X state binding energy is identical to that for NeI2 and NeBr2, suggesting that the potential energy surface for NeIBr can be constructed from a summation of atom-atom pair potentials; we present such a model potential energy surface. The variations in the vibrational branching ratios, when combined with the trends in the predissociation rates, point to the importance of fragment rotational excitation in the dynamics of the dissociation

Efficacy and Patient-Reported Outcomes of a New Mometasone Cream Treating Atopic Eczema

This double-blind controlled phase II study was conducted to compare a newly developed formulation of mometasone furoate with a water content of 33% (Monovo (R) Cream) and with a smooth consistency versus the commercially available fatty cream of mometasone furoate (Ecural (R) Fettcreme) in terms of efficacy, cosmetic properties, and patients' acceptance. In 20 patients with mild to moderate atopic eczema, the preparations were tested intraindividually in a randomized mode and in two comparable lesion areas. Both preparations were equally effective and well tolerated. Due to improved cosmetic properties, the new formulation was preferred by the patients when asked for preferential use. Quality of life could be improved by treating with both preparations. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base